北极巴罗地区1925~2018年气温变化特征分析

The Variation Characteristics of Temperature in Barrow Alaska during 1925-2018

摘要: 本文使用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、线性趋势回归等方法，对1925~2018年阿拉斯加巴罗地区的气温变化趋势进行了分析。该地区年均温在近94年间整体呈上升趋势，趋势系数约为2.8℃/100a。在1976年之前年均温呈波动下降趋势，1976年之后呈明显的上升趋势，且增长率高达9.3℃/100a，这说明巴罗地区的气候存在先变冷再急剧变暖的过程。四季当中冬季是增温最明显的季节，94年来的平均增长率达到4.27℃/100a，是夏季气温增长率1.38℃/100a的三倍有余，与“北极放大”现象相一致。年均温的突变发生在2005年左右，并且年均温存在以准15年的主周期和准8年与准28年的次周期的周期变化。相关结论对深入了解北极地区近百年的气候变化过程以及“北极放大”现象有重要的参考价值。

Abstract: Using the Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, correlation analysis, linear trend regression methods, the variations of temperature in Barrow, from the Barrow Airport monthly temperature data, were analyzed during 1925-2018. The whole tendency of annual change of temperature in 94 years is rising, with the trend approximately 2.8℃/100a. Before 1976, the mean annual temperature fluctuated downward, and after that, it showed an obvious upward trend nearly 9.3℃/100a, which indicated that Barrow experienced a process from cooling to rapid warming. Winter showed the most significant increasing trend among four seasons, with the average rate 4.27℃/100a, which is more than three times as high as that in summer (1.38℃/100a), right corresponding to the characteristic of “Arctic amplification”. The mutation of mean annual temperature occurred around 2005, and the value of temperature existed in a primary period of 15 years and a subcycle of quasi-8, quasi-28 years. The relevant conclusions are of reference value to the trend of temperature change in Arctic area and to the comprehension of “Arctic amplification”.