近几十年昆明市温度变化特征分析

Analysis on Characteristics of Temperature Variation in Kunming during Recent Decades

摘要: 利用昆明市1960~2018年气温观测数据对当地年最低气温、年最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年平均气温变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明，近几十年来昆明地区年最低气温、年最高气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年平均气温均大致呈显著上升的趋势。20世纪70年代是近59a最冷的阶段，但气温的极小值(−7.8℃)出现在20世纪80年代。2000~2010为近59a最暖的阶段，但气温的极大值(32.8℃)出现在2010年之后。年最低气温先于年最高气温产生突变。年最低气温在1987开始产生突变，且自1997年开始，年最低气温呈显著升高趋势；年最高气温在2005年才开始产生突变，且自2013年开始，年最高气温显著升高。年平均气温在1991~1992年间产生突变，自1993年开始，年平均气温显著增加。此外，气温在变化过程中主要存在着25~28a时间尺度的周期变化规律，且此周期以“冷–暖–冷”为主要特征。

Abstract: The annual minimum temperature, annual maximum temperature, annual mean minimum tem-perature, annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean temperature of Kunming city from 1960 to 2018 all showed a significant rising trend. The 1970s was the coldest period during recent decades, but the minimum temperature (−7.8˚C) appeared in the 1980s. 2000 to 2010 was the warmest period in the period of recent 59 yrs, but the maximum temperature (32.8˚C) appeared after 2010. The annual minimum temperature changes before the annual maximum temperature. The annual minimum temperature changed suddenly in 1987 and increased significantly since 1997. The annual maximum temperature only started to mutate in 2005 and has increased significantly since 2013. The abrupt change in the annual mean temperature began between 1991 and 1992, and the annual mean temperature increased significantly since 1993. In addition, the temperature in the process of change mainly exists in the 25 - 28a time scale periodic change rule, and this cycle is mainly characterized by “cold-warm-cold”.