交叉口单辆机动车事故严重程度分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Single-Vehicle Crash Injury Severity at Intersections

摘要: 交通事故的严重程度反映出交通安全程度，尤其是发生在交叉路口的事故，因此有必要找出影响事故严重程度的因素，以便相关部门或驾驶员采取有效措施，避免事故的发生，以提高交通出行安全。交通事故涉及单辆车或多辆车。通常，引起单车事故的主要原因为驾驶员未系安全带、酒驾、涉毒、交通标志不清晰或者车辆自身故障等因素。单车事故主要为车辆间擦碰或与行人碰撞，而非多车碰撞中的正面撞击或追尾。本文采用了有序Probit模型，基于2008年美国FDOT事故数据，分析了影响事故严重程度的潜在因素。

Abstract: As accidents and crashes play important roles in traffic safe operation, especially at intersections, it is necessary to figure out the factors that affect crash injury severity in order to take measures to avoid crash occurrence and improve intersection safety level. Single-vehicle crash is one of the intersection crashes, which is different from two-vehicle or multi-vehicle crash. It usually happens due to driver’s seat belt usage, alcohol/drugs involvement, traffic device visibility etc. Most crash types of it turn to be “Moving vehicle hits” or “With pedestrians” rather than “Head-on” or “Rear-end” in two-vehicle crashes. So in this study, an ordered probit model is conducted to analyze and reflect the influencing factors of crash injury severity at intersections. Data from 2008 FDOT crash database are used to build such a predictive model. Given the model itself, suggestions and countermeasures based on findings of variables impact on crash severity will be provided to reduce injury severity along with crash occurrence.