河南省生长季变化趋势特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Change Trend of Growing Season in Henan Province

摘要: 在全球变暖的大环境下，生长季长度的变化关系着农作物的生长发育，进而影响农作物的产量，因此研究河南省生长季变化特征具有重要作用。本论文基于河南省111个气象站点52年(1961~2012)的气象数据，用线性回归法和Mann-Kendall趋势性检验法分析了0℃、5℃和10℃三个温度阈值条件下河南省豫北、豫东、豫南、豫西、豫西南和豫中六个地区生长季的开始时间、结束时间和生长季长度的变化特征。结果表明，1961~2012年河南省六个区域生长季开始时间都呈提前趋势，生长季结束时间都呈延后趋势，生长季长度都呈增加趋势，而且各温度各区域中一般是开始时间总提前量大于结束时间总延后量。从温度上综合来讲，0℃条件下的生长季开始时间提前最多(最高约提前22天)，生长季长度增加最多(最高约增加26天)。从区域上综合来讲，豫北和豫西两地区生长季变化最明显。M-K检验图显示，各温度条件下生长季长度增加的突变点一般在七十年代上下，这之后其增加趋势多不是很显著。通过相关性分析可知，生长季长度与纬度的相关性最强，呈负相关，与经度、海拔高度的相关性很弱。

Abstract: In the global warming environment, the change of growth season length is related to the growth and development of crops, which in turn affects the yield of crops. Therefore, it is important to study the variation characteristics of growth season in Henan Province. Based on the meteorological data of 111 meteorological stations in Henan Province in the past 52 years (1961~2012), this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of the start time, end time and length of the growing season in the six regions of Northern Henan, Eastern Henan, Southern Henan, Western Henan, Southwest Henan and Central Henan, under the temperature thresholds of 0˚C, 5˚C and 10˚C using linear regression and Mann-Kendall trend test. The results showed that the start time of the growth season in the six regions of Henan Province showed an early trend from 1961 to 2012, and the end of the growing season showed a trend of extension. The length of the growing season showed an increasing trend. In each region of each temperature, the total advance amount of the start time is generally greater than the total delay amount of the end time. In terms of temperature, the start of the growing season at 0˚C is the most advanced (up to about 22 days in advance), and the length of the growing season is the most increased (up to about 26 days). In terms of regional integration, the growth seasons of the northern and western Henan regions are the most obvious. The M-K test chart shows that the mutation point of the growth season length under various temperature conditions is generally in the seventies, after which the increase trend is not very significant. Correlation analysis shows that the growth season length has the strongest correlation with latitude, which is negatively correlated, and has the weak correlation with longitude and altitude.