秃尾河流域径流量时空演变特征

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics of Runoff in Tuwei River Basin

摘要: 应用基尼系数、预置白Mann-Kendall趋势检验、MK-P法、Pettit t等方法，分析秃尾河上游高家堡站(1967~2012a)、下游高家川站(1956~2012a)径流时空演变特征。结果表明：秃尾河上、下游径流基尼系数均超过0.8，年内分布高度均匀，上游均匀现象更明显；上下游全年及四季年径流量均呈显著减少趋势，上游径流在1984，1997年发生两次明显突变，下游以1979，1996年为突变年；同一时期在5%、50%、95%频率上，下游径流降幅大于上游，且95%频率径流降幅最大。与基准期相比，人类活动强度较低期上、下游人类活动对径流的影响比例分别为70.01%，82.56%，人类活动强度较高期人类活动对径流的影响比例分别为69.37%，77.14%。水土保持和煤炭开采等人类活动成为影响秃尾河径流减少的主要因素。

Abstract: As actual water flow in the Middle Yellow River basin has been decreasing since the 1970s, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the runoff also produce new changes. Such changes will inevitably affect the development and utilization of water resources, therefore influence the healthy, rapid development of the economy along the river. This study analyses the variability of seasonal and annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Tuwei River at Gaojiabao hydrological station from 1967 to 2012 as well as Gaojiachuan hydrological station during 1956 to 2012 in the downstream. The methods of Gini coefficient, PW-MK trend test, MK-P abrupt test and Pettit t test were employed to explain the characteristics of the seasonal and annual change of runoff. The results indicated that: the Gini coefficient of runoff in both upstream and downstream is more than 0.8, annual distribution is highly uniform, and the upstream homogeneous phenomenon is more obvious. Annual and seasonal runoff shows significant decreasing trend and mutation features. The change points of upstream runoff occurred in 1984 and 1997. The notable abrupt variation of runoff in the lower reaches was observed in 1979 and 1996. At the same time, the downstream runoff decreased more than the upstream on the 5%, 50%, and 95% frequencies, and the 95% frequency runoff decreased the most. Compared to the contrast period the impact proportion of the human activities on runoff in human activity intensity low period for the upper and lower reaches was 70.01%, 82.56%. The impact proportion was 69.37%, 77.14%, respectively in human activity intensity higher period. Human activities such as large-scale water and soil conservation measure and high intensity of coal mining have become a major factor for the change in annual runoff in both upper and lower reaches of the Tuwei River.