基于FR和WOE评价模型的西南某管道敷设沿线地质灾害危险性分区研究

Research on the Susceptibility and Risk Zoning of Geological Disasters along the Southwest China Gas Pipeline Based on FR and WOE Evaluation Models

摘要: 西南某管道工程贯穿我国东西部地区，沿途环境多样，地质灾害频发。因此，开展管道沿线的地质灾害易发性与危险性研究对于提高管道的安全运营程度具有重要的指导作用。本研究基于频率比模型和证据权模型的定量计算方法，在掌握管道敷设沿线地质灾害特征与分布规律基础上，对研究区地质灾害影响因子划分并叠加管道敷设因子后，进行研究区地质灾害易发性和危险性评价。评价结果表明，管道敷设沿线可分为地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、及低易发区，其面积分别占总面积的30.38%、49.02%、20.6%，在易发性分区基础上，叠加管道敷设方式后，将管道敷设区域分为地质灾害高危险区、中危险区、低危险区，经统计分析，各危险区的面积分别占总面积的18.2%、44.13%、37.67%。

Abstract: The Southwest China Gas Pipeline Project runs through the eastern and western regions of China, with diverse environments along the way and frequent geological disasters. Therefore, the research on the susceptibility and risk of geological disasters along the pipeline has an important guiding role in improving the safe operation of the Southwest China Gas Pipeline. Based on the Frequency Ratio (FR) and weight of evidence model (WOE), after grasping the geological hazard characteristics and distribution rules along the pipeline laying, this paper divides the geological disaster index factors in the study area and superimposes the pipeline laying factor, and then evaluates the susceptibility and risk of geological disasters in the study area. The evaluation results show that the pipeline laying can be divided into geological disaster high-prone area, medium-prone area, and low-prone area, with the area accounting for 30.38%, 49.02%, and 20.6% of the total area, respectively. After the superimposed pipeline laying method, the pipeline laying area is divided into high-risk area, medium-risk area and low-risk area of geological disasters. According to statistical analysis, the area of each dangerous area accounts for 18.2%, 44.13% and 37.67% of the total area respectively.