基于偏最小二乘回归的环境综合治理决策分析——以日本为例

Decision Analysis of Environmental Comprehensive Governance Based on Partial Least Squares Regression—Take Japan as an Example

摘要: 经济发展与环境治理的关系研究具有重要的理论意义与现实需求。本文基于偏最小二乘回归统计方法对区域经济发展、工业污染及环保投资间的线性关系进行研究，以探索区域环境综合治理的着手点及侧重点。对日本2004~2018年的相关数据进行实证分析与模型拟合验证结果表明：基于偏最小二乘回归法提取的3个主成分累计贡献率达到85.6%。近十多年工业排污对日本的经济发展没有显著影响，而环保投资总额及物资循环投资与日本的经济发展显著正相关。结合日本的环保经验为我国区域综合环境治理政策拟定参考提供理论依据。

Abstract: The study of the relationship between economic development and environmental governance is of great theoretical significance and practical need. This paper studies the linear relationship between regional economic development, industrial pollution and environmental protection investment based on partial least squares regression statistical method, so as to explore the starting point and focus of regional environmental comprehensive management. The empirical analysis and model fitting of the relevant data from 2004 to 2018 in Japan show that the cumulative contribution rate of the three principal components extracted based on partial least square regression is 85.6%. In recent ten years, industrial sewage has no significant impact on the economic development of Japan, but the total investment in environmental protection and material recycling investment is significantly positively correlated with the economic development of Japan. Combined with the experience of environmental protection in Japan, it provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of regional comprehensive environmental governance policy in China.