基于AHP-CIM模型的PPP养老地产项目风险评价研究

Risk Evaluation Research on PPP Endowment Real Estate Based on AHP-CIM Method

摘要: 随着中国老龄化的不断深入，养老问题日益突出。虽然PPP模式能在一定程度上解决养老问题，但是PPP项目有着风险高、周期长、投资大的特性，这就使得PPP养老地产项目需要较为全面的风险分析。本文通过文献调研构建包括7个一级风险指标24个二级风险指标的风险评价体系。利用AHP确定一级指标的权重，再利用CIM模型构建PPP养老地产项目风险评估模型，计算项目各级指标风险概率分布和项目的总的风险概率。最后以某市QHW国际老年中心为例，依据AHP-CIM模型进行风险评价，并针对结果提出相应的风险防范建议。

Abstract: With the deepening of the degree of aging in China, the pension problem is more and more prominent. Although the PPP model can solve the pension problem to a certain extent, PPP projects have the characteristics of high risk, long cycle and large investment, which makes the PPP pension real estate projects need more comprehensive risk analysis. In this paper, a risk evaluation system consisting of 7 primary risk indicators and 24 secondary risk indicators was constructed through literature research. Then, AHP is used to determine the weight of the first-level index, and CIM model is used to build the risk assessment model of PPP old-age care real estate project, to calculate the risk probability distribution of indicators at all levels of the project and the total risk probability of the project. Finally, taking a city QHW international senior center as an example, the AHP-CIM model was used for risk assessment, and corresponding risk prevention suggestions were put forward according to the results.