天气灾害致车险理赔的风险分析

Risk Analysis on Vehicle Insurance Claims Because of Weather Events

摘要: 利用河北省2004~2018年天气灾害致车险理赔事故发生的详细资料，归纳整理出天气灾害致汽车出险发生的变化规律，并应用天气灾害风险指数对天气灾害致车险理赔风险进行客观评价。结果表明：致汽车出险的天气灾害主要是暴雨、涉水、冰雹和暴风。天气灾害致汽车出险主要发生在石家庄、秦皇岛、唐山、保定和廊坊，其中，石家庄出险最多，张家口出险最少；暴雨出险主要发生在秦皇岛和廊坊，涉水出险主要发生在唐山和石家庄，冰雹出险主要发生在保定、石家庄和秦皇岛，暴风出险主要发生在石家庄。近年来全省天气灾害致汽车出险明显增多，天气灾害致汽车出险高峰期发生在夏季(6~8月)，冬季(12~次年2月)为安全期；暴雨、涉水和暴风出险高峰期发生在主汛中后期(7~8月)，冰雹出险高峰期发生在主汛中前期(6~7月）。依据天气灾害风险评价指数将全省车险理赔划分为高风险区、中风险区和低风险区三个区，廊坊、唐山和保定处于高风险区，地形对天气灾害致车险理赔的风险影响较大。

Abstract: Based on the detailed information on vehicle insurance claims because of weather events from 2004 to 2014 in Hebei, the variation rules of the vehicle accidents caused by weather disaster were organized and its risk was evaluated objectively using risk index of weather events. The results show that, weather events leading to vehicle accidents include rainstorm, fording, hail and storm wind primarily. Vehicle accidents because of weather events happen in Shijiazhuang, Qinhuangdao, Tangshan, Baoding and Langfang primarily with being the maximum in Shijiazhuang and being the minimum in Zhangjiakou. Vehicle accidents because of rainstorm happen in Qinhuangdao and Langfang; because of fording in Tangshan and Shijiazhuang, because of hail in Baoding, Shijiazhuang and Qinhuangdao; and because of storm wind in Shijiazhuang primarily. Vehicle accidents because of weather events are increasing in current. The fastigium of vehicle accidents because of weather events happens in summer and winter is safe period. Fastigium of vehicle accidents because of rainstorm, fording and storm wind happens in the semilate flood period and fastigium of vehicle insurance claims because of hail happens in the earlymid flood period. Vehicle insurance claims because of weather events in Hebei are divided into three regions, high risk area, medium risk area and low risk area. Langfang, Tangshan and Baoding are located in high risk area. Vehicle insurance claims because of weather events are influenced by geography greatly.