洛河流域1961~2016年径流演变趋势特征分析

Analysis of Runoff Evolution Trend of Luohe River Basin from 1961 to 2016

摘要: 利用洛河流域的长水水文站56年的径流量资料和流域内3个气象站同期日降水观测资料，应用了Mann-Kendall检验和突变分析法、距平累积曲线、双累积曲线等方法分析了洛河流域1961~2016年的径流量和降水量变化的趋势性和阶段性，定量分析了人类活动和降水对流域径流量变化的影响程度。结果表明：洛河流域径流量和降水量变化阶段性明显，都经历了枯水期和丰水期；年径流量和年降水量整体呈下降趋势，但径流量下降趋势较降水量更为显著；径流量的突变年份为1977年，突变年份之后在人类活动和降水的影响下径流量明显降低，人类活动和降水分别对径流量降低的贡献率为89.14%和10.86%。分析结果表明人类活动是洛河流域径流变化的主要影响因素。

Abstract: The trends and stages of runoff and precipitation in Luohe River basin, in the past 56 years (1961-2016) were analyzed using methods of Mann-Kendall trend test and mutation analysis, accumulated anomaly curve, and double mass curve. The influences of human activities and precipitation on runoff change were also quantified. The data came from observed runoff at Changshui hydrometric station and ob-served daily precipitation at three adjacent meteorological stations in the Luohe River basin. Research findings demonstrated that the runoff and precipitation in Luohe River basin changed obviously in dif-ferent stages, both of which experienced the period’s high-flow of and low-flow. Both annual runoff and annual precipitation were on the decline, but runoff decline was more significant. Runoff changed abruptly in 1977. After the abrupt change, runoff decreased obviously under the influence of human activities and precipitation, the contribution rate of human activities and precipitation to the decrease of runoff was 89.14% and 10.86% respectively. The analysis results show that human activities are the main influencing factors of runoff change in Luohe River basin.