长江上游梯级水电站群的水能宏观关系研究

Relationship between Water and Energy for Cascade Hydropower Stations in Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

摘要: 水电站可将水能资源转化为电能。揭示宏观的水能关系，可直接实现流域内电站的发电量与水资源量的相互估算，为简单、快捷实现水–能相互转化提供依据。选取长江上游21座大型梯级水电站群为研究对象，分别采用常规调度和确定性优化调度方式，得到模拟调度结果，由此建立了年尺度的水–能转化关系。研究发现：1) 各水电站的出库流量与其发电量线性关系显著；2) 流域总水资源量与梯级水电站群总发电量也存在线性关系；3) 以各水电站总装机容量作为权重，水能关系拟合效果更佳。提出的方法为依据发电量估计水资源量或依据水资源量估算发电量提供了新途径。

Abstract: Hydropower stations convert water energy into electricity. The estimation of hydropower generation of power stations and water resources of basins from each other can be directly implemented in a simple way, which provides a basis for water-energy conversion. The 21 large-scale cascade hydropower stations in upper reaches of the Yangtze River were selected as the case study, and the conventional and deterministic optimization operations were used to simulate reservoir operation, and then the water-energy conversion relationship was established. The results show that: 1) the linear relationship between the outflow and power generation is significant for a single hydropower station; 2) there is a linear relationship between the total water resources of the basin and the total power generation of the cascade hydropower stations and 3) the water energy relationship has a better goodness of fitting when the installed capacity is used as the weight. The proposed method provides a new way to estimate the amount of water resources based on power generation, and to estimate the power generation from water resources.