组合预测模型的有效性分析——以中国人口老龄化预测为例

The Effectiveness Analysis of Combined Forecasting Model—Based on Forecast of China’s Aging of Population

摘要: 根据二次指数平滑预测、修正的灰色预测和BP神经网络预测的建模理论，构建人口老龄化的组合预测模型，得出不论是样本内预测还是样本外预测，组合预测模型的预测更有效的结论。而后运用该模型对2017年至2022年我国老龄化水平进行预测，预测结果显示，未来我国人口老龄化问题仍日益严重，基于此提出以下四点建议：第一，适当提高出生率；第二，大力发展老龄产业；第三，加快城市化发展进程；第四，深化城乡养老制度的改革。

Abstract: According to the modeling theory of quadratic exponential smoothing forecasting model, the mod-ified grey forecasting model and BP neural network forecasting model, combined forecasting model of the aging of population is constructed, and it is concluded that both within and outside the sample forecast, combined forecasting model has better forecasting effect than single models. And then it uses combined forecasting model to predict the level of the aging of population in our country from 2017 to 2022, the forecasting results show that the future of aging problem in our country is increasingly serious. Therefore, it puts forward four suggestions: First, appropriately improve the birth rate; second, vigorously develop the aging industry; third, promote the process of urbanization; fourth, deepen the reform of urban and rural pension systems.