基于Logit模型的京津城际铁路客流分担率预测

Forecast of Passenger Flow Sharing Rate of Beijing Tianjin Intercity Railway Based on Logit Model

摘要: 为推进建设京津冀共同体，本文对2025年时京津通道内的交通方式，如大巴、普速铁路、城际铁路和高速铁路之间的客流分担率进行预测和研究。基于Logit模型，经过考虑，将选取交通成本、旅途耗时、乘车的便捷性、舒适性和准时性作为5个主要的影响因素，从而建立效用函数，根据效用函数，得到分担率的Logit模型。通过调查与数据统计和处理，确定上述五个因素的效用值，并进行无量纲化处理。最后得出京津铁路和高速公路大巴之间的客流分担率。本文的研究结果对于预测2025年京津城际铁路的旅客分担率可以提供参考，并提出优化建议。

Abstract: In order to promote the construction of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei community, this paper forecasts and studies the traffic modes in the Beijing Tianjin corridor in 2025, such as the passenger flow sharing rate between buses, general speed railway, intercity railway and high-speed railway. Based on the Logit model, after consideration, the traffic cost, travel time, convenience, comfort and punctuality are selected as five main factors to establish the utility function model. Through investigation and data statistics and processing, the utility values of the above five factors are de-termined and dimensionless processing is carried out. Finally, the passenger flow sharing rate between Beijing Tianjin railway and expressway bus is obtained. The research results of this paper can provide reference for the prediction of passenger share rate of Beijing Tianjin Intercity Railway in 2025, and put forward optimization suggestions.