湖南省经济活力的预测及其影响因素的研究

The Prediction of Economic Vitality in Hunan Province and Its Influencing Factors

摘要: 为了较为全面地研究湖南省的经济活力及其影响因素，本文一方面从人口和企业两个特定视角下进行探讨，从客观层面考虑了相关指标，建立计量关系模型来分析其影响因素，揭示了经济活力的内生影响因素；另一方面从政府的宏观调控出发，考虑2016年湖南省开始实施的供给侧结构性改革，从经济和环境两个角度定义经济活力因子，建立基于时间序列的经济活力短期预测模型来揭示政府政策对经济活力的主观影响。最后，对湖南省的经济发展给出了建议。

Abstract: In order to comprehensively study the economic vitality and its influencing factors of Hunan Province, this paper, on the one hand, discusses from two specific perspectives of population and enterprise, considers the relevant indicators from an objective level, establishes a quantitative relationship model to analyze its influencing factors, and reveals the endogenous influencing factors of economic vitality; on the other hand, starts from the macro-control of the government, and considers Hunan Province in 2016. The implementation of supply side structural reform defines economic vitality factors from two aspects of economy and environment, and establishes a short-term prediction model of economic vitality based on time series to reveal the subjective impact of government policies on economic vitality. Finally, some suggestions are given for the economic development of Hunan Province.