六盘水市农作物生长季降水变化及旱涝特征分析

Drought and Flood Analysis and Precipitation Change during the Growing Season in Liupanshui

摘要: 利用六盘水市气象站1961~2018年逐日气温和降水量观测资料，采用气候倾向率法、累计距平法、M-K突变检测等统计方法，研究了六盘水市农作物生长季降水量变化及旱涝特征等，结果表明：近58年来六盘水市生长季降水量呈波动减少趋势，其中春季和秋季降水少，夏季降水多；六盘水市农作物生长季近58年出现重洪涝、中涝、轻涝占总年数分别为17%、7%、29%，出现旱灾为14%。其中，春季出现轻旱、中旱、重旱年份分别为8%、13%、22%，春季出现洪涝灾害的年份少，主要以干旱为主；夏季出现重级洪涝、中涝、轻涝年份分别为55%、9%、7%，夏季易出现洪涝灾害；秋季出现各级干旱占61%，其中重旱为28%，出现各级洪涝占22%。六盘水市近58年的农作物生长季降水在1987年发生了由多到少突变交点，旱涝特征的突变点出现在2001年。

Abstract: Based on daily temperature and precipitation data in Liupanshui meteorological station from 1961 to 2018, precipitation Change and the characteristics of drought and flood in the growing season of crops in Liupanshui were studied by using the methods of climate tendency rate, cumulative anomaly and M-K mutation detection. The results showed that the precipitation in the growing season in Liupanshui had a decreasing trend in recent 58 years. There was less precipitation in spring and in autumn but more in summer. In recent 58 years, heavy flood, medium flood and light flood occurred in growing season in Liupanshui accounting for 17%, 7%, 29%, and drought 14%. There were respectively 8%, 13%, 22% years of light drought, medium drought and heavy drought in spring. There are relatively few years of flood disaster in spring. There were respectively 55%, 9%, 7% years of heavy flood, medium flood and light flood. There was much precipitation in summer, which is prone to flood disaster. There were 61% of droughts at all levels in autumn, of which 28% was heavy drought, others levels flood disaster accounting for 22%. The precipitation of growing season in Liupanshui occurred from more to less abrupt in 1987, and the abrupt point of drought and flood characteristics appeared in 2001.