自然地理因素对区域能源碳排放影响研究

Study on Nature Geographical Factors and Regional Energy-Related Carbon Emissions

摘要: 本文基于中国30个省份的面板数据，以人均一次化石能源产量为指标探索了自然地理因素对能源碳排放的影响规律。结果表明：①一次化石能源生产对全国及区域能源碳排放均有显著正向影响；②影响弹性系数随着社会经济的发展呈现某种变化趋势；③关注区域能源进出口政策对区域的低碳发展十分重要。在发展型高碳发展省份，人均GDP低但社会经济快速发展，影响弹性系数较高但随着经济增长而下降，应注重调整产业体系，提高减排技术，并控制一次化石能源的进口。在均衡型低碳发展省份，人均GDP处于国家平均水平之上，技术的发展进步是弹性系数下降的主要因素。在发达型低碳发展省份，经济发达，影响弹性系数增加，应注重改善化石能源进口结构，进口更多低碳排放系数的一次化石能源，增加公众的环境意识。资源型高碳发展省份作为特例，资源产量大，影响弹性系数较弱，当地政府应严格控制一次化石能源的开采与出口，根据当地发展水平合理制定减排目标。

Abstract: Based on panel data of China’s 30 provinces in 2003-2014, an econometrics panel model was used to explore the effects of natural geographical factors, using per capita primary fossil fuel energy production as an indicator, on energy-related carbon emissions in Chinese provinces. The main findings were as follow. 1) Primary fossil fuel energy production significantly influenced energy-related carbon emissions both for the whole of China and for regions. 2) With the economic and social development, the carbon emission elasticities of natural geographical factors showed some trends. 3) It is important for the low-carbon development of areas to focus on the import and export of energy. In the economically developed low-carbon area, the elasticity of this influence was high, but decreased as the economy grew during rapid socioeconomic development. The province should concentrate on restructuring their industrial systems, improving techniques and controlling primary fossil fuel energy inputs for decreasing carbon emissions. In the balanced low-carbon area, technological development is a major factor for the decrease of the elasticity. In the developing high-carbon area, provinces should focus on improving the fossil fuel energy import structure to import more primary fossil fuel energy with low carbon emission coefficients. The elasticity of resource high-carbon area was weak, the local governments should develop policies to regulate primary fossil fuel exploration and export, and develop reasonable measures to mitigate energy-related carbon emissions considering local natural geographical factors.