基于模糊层次评价法的PPP项目风险评价研究
Research on PPP Project Risk Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Hierarchical Evaluation Process
DOI: 10.12677/AAM.2020.95072, PDF,  被引量    科研立项经费支持
作者: 刘舒逸：武汉理工大学理学院，湖北 武汉；李 云#：湖南城建职业技术学院，建筑设备工程系，湖南 湘潭
关键词: 模糊层次评价法；PPP模式；风险评价；风险因素；层次分析法；Fuzzy Hierarchical Evaluation Process； PPP Mode； Risk Assessment； Risk Factor； Analytic Hierarchy Process
摘要: 本文通过对PPP项目风险因素体系进行了分析，建立了评价标准和决策准则，将模糊数学评价法与层次分析法相结合形成了模糊层次评价法(F-AHP)。运用模糊层次评价法对PPP项目的政治政策风险、经济风险、环境风险、项目建设风险和管理风险等风险因素进行定性分析及定量分析研究，准确地计算出案例中各风险因素评价指标的评价得分和总体风险评价得分，并确定PPP项目风险大小，为PPP项目的风险决策提供了依据。因此模糊层次评价法是对PPP项目进行风险评价行之有效的方法。
Abstract: This paper analyses the risk factor system of PPP projects, establishes evaluation criteria and de-cision-making criteria, and combines fuzzy mathematical evaluation method with analytic hier-archy process to form the fuzzy hierarchical evaluation method (F-AHP). This paper uses the method of Fuzzy Hierarchical Assessment to make qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of risk factors such as political policy risk, economic risk, environmental risk, project construction risk and management risk of PPP project. It accurately calculates the evaluation score of each risk factor evaluation index and the overall risk evaluation score in the case, and determines the size of the PPP project risk, provides the basis for risk decision-making of PPP project. Therefore, Fuzzy Hierarchical Evaluation method is an effective method for risk evaluation of PPP projects.
文章引用：刘舒逸, 李云. 基于模糊层次评价法的PPP项目风险评价研究[J]. 应用数学进展, 2020, 9(5): 599-608. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2020.95072

参考文献

[1] 孙振正. PPP模式下基础设施项目融资风险管理研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 上海: 华东理工大学, 2010: 35-38.
[2] 张晨. PPP项目风险分担: 发达国家与发展中国家的比较分析[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 天津: 天津大学, 2013: 60-63.
[3] 欧宗奇. PPP模式下城市基础设施项目投资方风险评价研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 合肥: 安徽建筑大学, 2016: 43-47.
[4] Chapman, C.B. and Cooper, D.F. (1987) Risk Analysis for Large Projects: Models, Methods and Cases. John Wiley & Sons.
[5] Hastak, M. and Shaked, A. (2000) ICRAM-1: Model for International Construction Risk Assessment. Journal of Management in Engineering, 16, 59-69. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[6] PPIAF (2016) The APMG Public-Private Part-nership (PPP) Certification Guide. The World Bank Group, 74-80.
[7] Fischer, K., Leidel, K., Riemann, A. and Alfen, H.W. (2010) An Integrated Risk Management System (IRMS) for PPP Projects. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 45-47.
[8] Jin, X.H., Zhang, G.M. and Yang, R.J. (2012) Factor Analysis of Partners’ Commitment to Risk Management in Public-Private Partnership Projects. Construction Innovation: Information, Process, Management, 43-46.

为你推荐