一类潜伏期和隐性感染者均具有传染性的COVID-19传染病模型
An Epidemic Model of COVID-19 Incorporating Both the Latent and the Asymptomatic Infectious
DOI: 10.12677/AAM.2020.95083, PDF,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 王雪萍, 王晓静, 白玉珍, 闫慧林：北京建筑大学理学院，北京
关键词: 潜伏期；隐性感染；COVID-19；控制再生数；稳定性；Latent Period； Asymptomatic Infection； COVID-19； Control Reproduction Number； Stability
摘要: 2019年12月，COVID-19疫情从武汉开始爆发，并迅速蔓延，隔离疑似人员和确诊病例是一种有效的防控措施。因此，在本文我们将隔离的确诊患者作为一个仓室，建立了一类隐性感染者和潜伏期患者均具有传染性的SEICAR传染病模型。通过分析各参数对控制再生数和地方病平衡点的灵敏性，提出了三个有效的控制策略。研究结果表明考虑隐性感染者以及潜伏期患者的传染性能够较准确地评估控制再生数，为制定更科学的疫情防控方案提供参考。
Abstract: In December 2019, the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) began in Wuhan and quickly spread. China has adopted prevention and control measures to isolate suspected persons and confirmed cases. Here, we establish an SEICAR epidemic model, in which both infectious patients and latent patients are infectious. Through sensitivity analyses of each parameter to the control reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium, three effective control strategies are proposed. The results indicate that, if considering the infectivity of the latently infected and asymptomatic patients, the control reproduction number can be more accurately assessed, furthermore, that will provide a more scientific reference for making prevention and control policies.
文章引用：王雪萍, 王晓静, 白玉珍, 闫慧林. 一类潜伏期和隐性感染者均具有传染性的COVID-19传染病模型[J]. 应用数学进展, 2020, 9(5): 700-707. https://doi.org/10.12677/AAM.2020.95083

参考文献

[1] Kermack, M. and Mckendrick, A. (1927) Contributions to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics: Part I. Proceedings of the Royal Society Series A, 115, 700-721. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[2] Aron, J.L. and Schwartz, I.B. (1984) Seasonality and Period-Doubling Bifurcations in an Epidemic Model. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 110, 665-679. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[3] King, A.A., Lonides, E.L., Pascual, M., et al. (2008) Inapparent Infections and Cholera Dynamics. Nature, 454, 877-880. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[4] Yang, J., Yang, F., Huang, F., et al. (2009) Subclinical Infection with the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 49, 1622-1623. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[5] Longini, I.M. (2005) Containing Pandemic Influenza at the Source. Science, 309, 1083-1087. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[6] 陈田木, 刘如春, 张锡兴, 等. 长沙市甲型H1N1流感流行干预措施效果的数学模拟[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2015, 32(2): 205-210.
[7] Wang, L., Wang, J., Zhao, H., et al. (2020) Modelling and Assessing the Effects of Medical Resources on Transmission of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 17, 2936-2949. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[8] Wang, C., Liu, L., Hao, X. and Guo, H. (2020) Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[9] Zhao, S., Musa, S.S., Lin, Q., et al. (2020) Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, pii: E388. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[10] Tang, B., Wang, X., Li, Q., et al. (2020) Estimation of the Transmission Risk of 2019-nCov and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 9, pii: E462. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[11] Cohen, J. and Normile, D. (2020) New SARS-Like Virus in China Triggers Alarm Science. Science (New York, N.Y.), 367, 234-235. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[12] Chen, Y., Liu, Q. and Guo, D. (2020) Emerging Coronaviruses: Genome Structure, Replication, and Pathogenesis. Journal of Medical Virology, 92, 418-423. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[13] Kwok, K.O., Tang, A. and Wei, V.W.I. (2019) Epidemic Models of Contact Tracing: Systematic Review of Transmission Studies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal, 17, 186-194. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[14] 魏永越, 卢珍珍, 杜志成, 等. 基于改进的SEIR+CAQ传染病动力学模型进行新冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势分析[J]. 中华流行病学杂志, 2020, 41(2): 470-475.
[15] Read, J.M., Bridgen, J.R.E. and Cummings, D.A.T. (2020) Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV: Early Estimation of Epidemiological Parameters and Epidemic Predictions. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[16] Chang, X., Liu, M., Jin, Z. and Wang, J. (2020) Studying on the Impact of Media Coverage on the Spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[17] 陈慧林, 董慧茹, 郑一男, 等. 考虑到隐性感染人群的潜伏期和发病期均传染的SLICAR模型[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2015, 32(2): 264-266.
[18] Hassard, B.D., Kazarinoff, N.D. and Wan, Y.H. (1981) Theory and Applications of Hopf Bifurcation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[19] Chitnis, N., Hyman, J.M. and Cushing, M.J. (2009) Determining Important Parameters in the Spread of Malaria through the Sensitivity Analysis of a Mathematical Model. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 70, 1272-1296. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[20] Sambhara, S. and Mcelhaney, J.E. (2009) Immunosenescence and Influenza Vaccine Efficacy. Current Topics in Microbiology and Immunology, 333, 413-429. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]

为你推荐