东莞市绿色增长对财政收入的影响研究——以环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点为视角

Research on the Influence of Green Growth in Dongguan on Financial Revenue—From the Perspective of the Inflection Point of Environmental Kuznets Curve

摘要: 环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点说明环境与经济增长之间存在一个进入良性循环的临界点。本文用资源消耗反映绿色增长的水平，通过回顾东莞市现状，并分析东莞绿色增长战略的技术和人文优势，构建从“市(东莞)–省(广东)–全国”三个层级和“省(广东)–省(广西)”两个区域两条比较路径，分别考察煤炭、电力、水三项资源消耗指标。运用切比雪夫多项式和普通多项式进行拟合与预测，结果表明资源消耗与人均财政收入的变动与环境库兹涅茨曲线吻合，并且在各个地区存在一定的差异，最后对东莞市发展提出相应的建议。

Abstract: The inflection point of Environmental Kuznets curve indicates that there is a critical point of en-tering a virtuous cycle between environment and economic growth. In this paper, resource con-sumption is used to reflect the level of green growth. By reviewing the current situation of Dong-guan, and analyzing the technological and cultural advantages of Dongguan’s green growth strategy, this paper constructs two comparative paths from the three levels of “city (Dongguan) - province (Guangdong) - country” and “Province (Guangdong) - province (Guangxi)”, respectively examining three resource consumption indicators of coal, electricity and water. Using Chebyshev polynomials and ordinary polynomials to fit and predict, the results show that the changes of resource consumption and per capita fiscal revenue are consistent with the Environmental Kuznets curve, and there are some differences in each region. Finally, the corresponding suggestions for the development of Dongguan City are put forward.