汉江流域水资源承载力综合评价研究

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Han River Basin

摘要: 根据汉江流域水资源、社会经济和环境生态现状，构建由3层12项指标组成的综合评价指标体系。依据主成分分析法和熵权法确定指标权重，建立评价标准、模糊综合评判和集对分析评价模型，对汉江流域水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果显示汉江流域2010~2016年水资源承载力大体变化趋势为先逐步降低，在2013年达到最低值，后逐渐上升。模糊综合评价显示汉江流域水资源承载力各年得分在0.55~0.58之间，集对分析显示其承载力具有一定风险性。汉江流域水资源承载力已达一定规模，应合理开发并高效利用水资源。该研究将为汉江生态经济带可持续高质量发展规划提供技术支撑。

Abstract: According to the status of water resources, social economy and environmental ecology in the Han River basin, a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of 3 layers and 12 indicators is constructed. Index weights are determined according to the principal component analysis and entropy weight methods. The evaluation standards, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and set-pair analysis evaluation models are used to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. The results show that the general trend of water resources carrying capacity from 2010 to 2016 gradually decreased first and reached the lowest value in 2013, and then gradually increased. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the score of water resources carrying capacity is between 0.55 and 0.58 in each year, and the set-pair analysis shows that its carrying capacity has certain risks. Since the water resources carrying capacity in Han River basin has reached a certain scale, the development and utilization of water resources should be more reasonable and efficient. This study will provide technical support for the planning of Han River ecological and economic belt.