基于数据包络分析的收缩城市预测模型研究

Research on the Prediction Model of Shrinking Cities Based on Data Envelopment Analysis

摘要: 本文以数据包络分析为基础，建立收缩城市预测模型。首先从城市发展角度分析预测模型的评价指标，以收缩城市面临的主要问题为前提，提出城市效率概念，确定输入和输出指标。其次建立预测模型，运用Deap2.1进行求解，再应用线性回归分析对城市未来的收缩情况进行预测。最后通过案例分析，对该模型的有效性进行论证，为城市的发展提供合理的规划建议。

Abstract: In this paper, based on data envelopment analysis, we establish shrinkage prediction model of the city. First of all, from the perspective of urban development, we analyze evaluation index of prediction model. Secondly, we put forward the concept of urban efficiency and determine the input and output metrics premised on the major problems of shrinking urban. Then, we establish and solve shrinkage prediction model by Deap2.1, and use linear regression analysis to predict the future urban shrinkage. In the last step, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the model by case analysis and provide reasonable planning suggestions for urban development.