渤海沿岸风暴潮极值水位的预测分析

Prediction Analysis of Extreme Water Level of Storm Surge along the Coast of Bohai Sea

摘要: 利用三维FVCOM海洋动力学模型，对渤海20年(1987~2006)风暴潮过程进行数值模拟，利用GEV广义极值理论对模拟数据进行统计分析，对渤海沿岸港口的风暴潮极值水位进行未来预测。结果表明，渤海沿岸的风暴潮重现期极值水位发生明显变化，特别是塘沽站和黄骅站重现期极值水位增加较大。在塘沽站，20年和30年重现期的风暴潮极值水位比目前增加了7.76%和10.53%。在塘沽站发生特大风暴潮的可能性在2030年内达到60%，在2050年内达到85%，而在2100年达到92%以上。

Abstract: Using the three-dimensional ocean model FVCOM, the storm surges happened in Bohai Sea during 20 years (1987-2006) were reproduced. The simulation data was statistically analyzed by using the general extreme value theory. The future prediction of the extreme water level along the coast of Bohai Sea was studied. The results showed that the extreme water level in different return periods changed significantly, especially at Tanggu and Huanghua Ports. At Tanggu Port, the extreme water level in 20-year and 30-year return periods increased by 7.76% and 10.53% which was higher than the current level. The probability of the serious storm surge at Tanggu Port would increase by 60% in 2030, 85% in 2050 and over 92% in 2100.