基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的商品房销售价格预测

Commodity Housing Price Prediction Based on GM (1,1) Model

摘要: 近年来，一线城市的房价问题以其居高不下的势头引起了人们的广泛关注，政府也出台了一系列的调控措施进行应对。本文选取2002~2018年深圳市商品房平均销售价格的历史数据，建立灰色GM(1,1)模型，运用常微分方程求解和邓聚龙求解两种算法进行预测分析。结论为常微分方程求解预测效果更好。

Abstract: In recent years, the housing price problem in first-tier cities has attracted widespread attention due to its momentum. The government has also issued a series of regulatory measures to deal with it. This article selects the historical data of the average sales price of commercial housing in Shenzhen from 2002 to 2018, establishes a GM (1,1) model, and uses ordinary differential equations and Deng Julong’s solving algorithm for prediction and analysis. The conclusion drawn is that ordinary differential equations are better for prediction.