基于GM(1,1)模型的潍坊市旅游人数预测

Prediction of the Number of Tourists in Weifang City Based on GM (1,1) Model

摘要: 随着社会的发展和人民生活水平的提高，人们越来越喜欢外出旅游。本文先简要概述了构建GM(1,1)模型的过程，然后以2011年至2019年潍坊市的旅游人数为基础，通过使用GM(1,1)预测模型和MATLAB软件来预测旅游人数，发现精度较高，同时预测了潍坊市未来五年的旅游人数，预测结果显示在未来五年潍坊市旅游人数仍呈递增趋势，并且2022年旅游人数有望突破1亿人。该预测结果对潍坊市旅游业的发展具有一定的反向指导和推动作用，为旅游部门的决策提供了一定的科学依据。

Abstract: With the development of society and the improvement of people’s living standard, people are more and more fond of traveling. This article first briefly summarizes the process of building GM(1,1) model, then based on the number of tourists in Weifang from 2011 to 2019, uses GM(1,1) prediction model and MATLAB software to predict the number of tourists. It is found that the accuracy is high. At the same time, it forecasts the number of tourists in Weifang in the next five years. The prediction results show that the number of tourists in Weifang is still increasing in the next five years, and the number of tourists in 2022 is expected to exceed 100 million people. The prediction results have a certain reverse guidance and promotion for the development of Weifang tourism, and provide a certain scientific basis for the decision-making of the tourism department.