农村居民人均可支配收入的分析

Analysis of Per Capita Disposable Income of Rural Residents

摘要: 通过分析，找到影响农村居民人均可支配收入的因素，利用逐步回归法建立线性模型，通过回归系数的显著性检验，可以找到影响农村居民人均可支配收入的显著因素。对于自变量之间的多重共线性，利用主成分回归或者岭回归消除自变量之间的共线性，建立岭回归的回归方程y=49.504+0.432x₁+0.142x₂-0.549x₃。绘制农村居民人均可支配收入与时间的序列图，发现农村居民人均可支配收入呈上升趋势，根据差分后的数据建立ARMA(p,q)模型，将趋势提取出来。

Abstract: Through the analysis, the factors affecting the per capita disposable income of rural residents are found, and a linear model is established by using the stepwise regression method. Through the significance test of the regression coefficient, the significant factors affecting the per capita disposable income of rural residents can be found. For multicollinearity among independent variables, principal component regression or ridge regression is used to eliminate the collinearity among independent variables, and the regression equation of ridge regression is established y=49.504+0.432x₁+0.142x₂-0.549x₃. Draw a sequence diagram of the per capita disposable income and time of rural residents, and find that the per capita disposable income of rural residents is on the rise. Build a model ARMA(p,q) based on the data after the difference and extract the trend.