公共卫生事件信息传播规律模型

Information Propagation Model of Public Health Events

摘要: 针对新媒体背景下突发公共卫生事件信息传播现象，通过组合预测的方法，运用灰色GM(1,1)模型和加权马尔可夫链预测理论，构建了灰色–加权马尔可夫链预测模型，对突发公共卫生事件的未来趋势进行预测，有效提高了预测精度。并以非洲猪瘟事件为例进行了比较分析，验证了模型的可行性和有效性。

Abstract: Through the method of combination prediction, this paper studies the phenomenon of information propagation of public health events under the background of new media. By using the grey GM(1,1) model and the weighted Markov chain prediction theory, the grey-weighted Markov chain prediction model is constructed to predict the future trend of public health emergencies, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy. Finally, taking CSFV in Africa as an example, the fea-sibility and validity of the model are verified.