基于最小二乘法的利润变动趋势分析

The Analysis of Profit Trend by Using the Least Square Method

摘要: 浙江万马股份有限公司作为电缆行业知名企业，近年来发展迅速，本文以该公司10余组年利润总额数据为样本，分别利用牛顿插值与多项式曲线拟合建立相应的数学模型，并通过比较两种模型各自预测值与实际值之间的误差，得出多项式曲线拟合构造的数学模型相对更优的结论。接着，为了进一步检验该模型的有效性，本文对该公司2018年和2019年的年利润总额数据进行了验证，结果显示拟合效果良好。最后，本文利用上述模型对该公司未来2年的年利润总额进行了预测。

Abstract: Zhejiang Wanma Co., Ltd., as a well-known enterprise in cable industry, has developed rapidly in recent years. In this paper, the Newton interpolation method and polynomial curve fitting method are used respectively to establish the corresponding mathematical model by using more than 10 groups of annual gross profit data of the company. By comparing the errors of the two models, it is found that the mathematical model of polynomial curve fitting is better. Then, the total profit data of the company in 2018 and 2019 are verified in order to further test the validity of the model, and the results show that the fitting effect is good. Finally, the total annual profit of the company in the next two years is forecasted through the above model.