手机销售量预测数学模型

Mathematical Model of Mobile Phone Sales Forecast

摘要: 预测销售量，做好销量预测是生产商制定好的生产方案的重要依据。本文针对最新一代手机产品的销售量和订单量预测的问题进行研究。以题目所给的数据为基础，选择适合的科学原理和预测方法，对数据进行处理、挖掘，建立预测模型，然后再对模型处理和分析，研究并做出手机销量的预测模型，为商家的销售提供便利条件。本文重点选用统计学习理论的相关知识进行统计估计和预测。由于统计学习理论中较实用的部分为支持向量机，是一种有效实现结构风险最小化的设计方法，所以本文采用最小二乘支持向量机的方法。以机器学习理论与统计理论为基础，运用支持向量机的方法进行了完整的建模工作。预测结果表明，该模型具有较高的预测精度，同时基于手机销售的影响因素等多方面条件，实现了系统地对手机销售预测，具有较好的发展性，可以为电子企业生产商提供方便条件。

Abstract: Forecasting the sales volume and making a good sales volume forecast are important bases for manufacturers to make a good production plan. In this paper, the sales volume and the order volume prediction of the latest generation of mobile phone products are studied. On the basis of the data given in the topic, the author selects the appropriate scientific principles and forecasting methods, to process and mine the data, and establish a forecasting model, and then processes and analyzes the model, studies and makes a forecasting model of mobile phone sales, so as to provide convenience for the sales of merchants. This paper focuses on the relevant knowledge of statistical learning theory for statistical estimation and prediction. Because the practical part of statistical learning theory is support vector machine, which can effectively realize the design method of minimizing structural risk, this paper adopts the method of least square support vector machine. Based on machine learning theory and statistical theory, a complete modeling work is carried out by using support vector machine. The prediction results show that the model has high prediction accuracy, and based on various conditions such as influencing factors of mobile phone sales, it realizes the systematic prediction of mobile phone sales, which has good development and can provide convenient conditions for electronic enterprise manufacturers.