基于最大熵原理的四川省暴雨致灾能力研究

Study on the Disaster Causing Capacity of Rainstorm in Sichuan Province Based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy

摘要: 本文运用最大熵原理及其所推导得出的气象要素分布规律，选取一次暴雨过程的持续时间、降水量大于25毫米区域总面积、面雨量、平均强度作为气象评估要素，使用四川省2017~2019年数次区域性暴雨的气象要素与其相应的灾害损失的关联度所计算出的权重系数计算出暴雨致灾能力指数以衡量一次暴雨过程的致灾能力大小。利用一次有较大灾害损失的暴雨过程检验发现，此指数能很好的反映出一次暴雨灾害的致灾能力情况，可用此指数衡量四川省暴雨致灾能力大小，帮助清晰客观的从气象角度定量的说明暴雨灾害强度情况，以助于后续灾后工作精准高效进行。

Abstract: Based on the principle of maximum entropy and the distribution law of meteorological elements derived from it, this paper selects the duration of a rainstorm process, the total area of the area with precipitation greater than 25 mm, the area rainfall and the average intensity as the meteorological evaluation elements, the calculated rainstorm disaster causing capacity index used the weight coefficient calculated by the correlations between meteorological elements of several regional rainstorms in Sichuan Province from 2017 to 2019 and their corresponding disaster losses, and the index could be used to measure a disaster-causing capacity of a rainstorm process. It is found that this index can well reflect the disaster causing ability of a rainstorm disaster by using a rainstorm process test with large disaster loss. It can be used to measure the disaster causing ability of Rainstorm in Sichuan Province, help to explain the rainstorm disaster intensity clearly and objectively from the meteorological point of view, so as to help the follow-up work carry out accurately and efficient-ly.