近50年山东省降水特征分析

Characteristics of Precipitation in Shandong Province in 50 Years

摘要: 山东省作为中国农业大省之一，也是中东部人口重要聚居地之一，其降水的气候变化对农业生产和社会的可持续发展有着较大影响。本文利用1961~2007年山东地区17个站点的降水资料通过气候倾向率、小波分析法以及MK检验等方法分析47年来山东地区降水量分布时间变化的特征。结果表明：在全球气候变暖的总背景下，近47年来山东地区总体降水量呈减小趋势。小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、特大暴雨降水量呈弱下降趋势，大暴雨降水量呈弱上升趋势。由此可见山东地区在研究时段内不同量级的降水有一定的变化，极端降水天气增多。研究结果可为山东省农业生产和社会经济的可持续发展提供参考。

Abstract: As one of the largest agricultural provinces in China, Shandong province is also one of the important settlements of population in central and eastern China. According to the daily precipitation data of 17 stations in 1961-2007 from the Chinese Academy of phonological observation net work in Shandong, the changes of precipitation was analyzed using Climate trend rate, Mann-Kendall test method and Wavelet analysis. The results showed that the rainfall of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain were reducing, but the extraordinary rain was increasing. More extreme rainy weather would be occurring in Shandong. The results can provide reference for sustainable development of agricultural production and social economy in Shandong Province.