1954~2017a阿勒泰市春季各级别寒潮过程强度评估

Characteristics of Frequency, Intensity and Climate of Cold Wave in Altay 1954-2017a

摘要: 利用阿勒泰基准气候站日最低气温资料，资料长度从1954年到2017年的春季，以日最低气温及其降温幅度为指标，计算寒潮过程单要素强度评估指标包括：寒潮降温幅度，最大24 h降温幅度，最大48 h降温幅度，最大72 h降温幅度，过程最低气温，过程最低气温距平；以寒潮综合强度指数IY评估各次寒潮天气过程，结果表明：1) 以寒潮天气过程降温幅度标准化指数IA为指标，强度从大到小排列前十位的过程一般寒潮和强寒潮过程各月分布比较均匀，特强寒潮过程全部现在3月。2) 以寒潮天气过程最大24 h、48 h和72 h降温幅度标准化指数I24 h、I48 h和I72 h为指标，强度从大到小排列前十位的寒潮过程中一般寒潮过程出现在3月的分别有2次、1次和4次，出现在4月的均为3次，出现在5月的分别有5次、6次和3次；强寒潮过程出现在3月的分别有6次、6次和5次，出现在4月的分别有2次、2次和3.5次，出现在5月的分别有2次、2次和1.5次；特强寒潮过程全部出现在3月。3) 以寒潮天气过程最低气温标准化指数ITD为指标，强度从大到小排列前十位的各级别寒潮过程全部出现在3月。以寒潮天气过程最低气温距平标准化指数IJP为指标，强度从大到小排列前十位的寒潮过程中一般寒潮过程中4次出现在4月，6次出现在5月；强寒潮和特强寒潮过程均有9次出现在3月，1次出现在4月。4) 以各级别寒潮过程强度综合评估指标IY为指标，强度从大到小排列前十位的一般寒潮过程3月只出现了1次，4次出现在4月，5次出现在5月；排列前十位的强寒潮过程中8次出现在3月，2次出现在4月；排列前十位的特强寒潮过程中9次出现在3月，1次出现在4月。5) 春季一般寒潮和强寒潮过程强度均为强度呈减弱的趋势，但不显著；而特强寒潮过程为强度减弱且显著。

Abstract: Based on the daily minimum temperature data of Altay reference climate station from 1954 to the spring of 2017, taking the daily minimum temperature and its cooling range as indexes, the single factor intensity evaluation index of cold wave process is calculated, that including cold wave cooling range, maximum 24 h cooling range, maximum 48 h cooling range, maximum 72 h cooling range, process minimum temperature and process minimum temperature anomaly. Evaluation of each cold wave weather process by cold wave comprehensive intensity index IY, the results are as follows: 1) Taking the cold wave weather process standardization index IA as the index, the process of ranking the top ten from large to small intensities generally distributes relatively evenly during each month during the general cold wave and strong cold wave, and all the extremely strong cold wave processes are in March. 2) Taking the cold wave weather process maximum 24 h, 48 h and 72 h standardization index I24 h, I48 h and I72 h as indicators, the general cold wave process occurred twice, once and 4 times in March respectively during the cold wave process of the top ten intensities from largest to smallest, all appeared in April for 3 times, and appeared in May for 5 times, 6 times and 3 times respectively, the strong cold wave process appeared 6 times, 6 times and 5 times in March respectively, and twice, twice and 3.5 times in April respectively, and there were twice, twice and 1.5 times in May respectively. The extremely strong cold wave process all appeared in March. 3) Taking the cold wave weather process minimum temperature standardized index ITD as an indicator, the top ten cold wave processes of all levels with intensity from large to small all appeared in March. Taking the cold wave weather process the lowest temperature anomaly standardized index IJP as an indicator, the general cold wave occurred 4 times in April and 6 times in May for the top ten cold waves with intensity from large to small, while strong cold waves process and super strong cold waves process all occurred 9 times in March and once in April. 4) Taking the comprehensive evalu-ation index IY of the cold wave process intensity of each level as the index, the general cold wave process with the intensity ranked in the top ten from largest to smallest occurred only once in March, 4 times in April, and 5 times in May, 8 times of the strong cold waves in the top ten appeared in March and twice in April, 9 times of the extremely strong cold waves in the top ten appeared in March and once in April. 5) The intensity of the general cold wave and strong cold wave in spring showed a weakening trend, but not significant, while the extra-strong cold wave process was weak and significant.