时间序列分析在福建省茶叶产量预测中的应用

Application of Time Series Analysis in Tea Yield Prediction in Fujian Province

摘要: 利用时间序列分析理论，通过使用SAS软件，对获取的福建省1986~2015年茶叶总产量进行数据处理及分析，通过数据处理后对构成的时间序列进行ARIMA(1,1,0)模型和ARIMA(1,2,1)模型的拟合。分别对模型进行模型检验以及参数检验，检验通过之后，分别用两个模型与福建省2016~2019年实际茶叶总产量进行检验，并结合AIC准则得出拟合较优的是ARIMA(1,2,1)模型。最后利用SAS软件，选择较优的ARIMA(1,2,1)模型对2020~2025年福建省茶叶总产量进行有效预测。

Abstract: Based on the time series analysis theory and the SAS software, the total output of tea in Fujian Province from 1986 to 2015 was processed and analyzed. After the data processing, the time series was fitted with ARIMA(1,1,0) model and ARIMA(1,2,1) model. Model test and parameter test are carried out for the model respectively. After the test is passed, the two models are compared with the actual tea production of Fujian Province in 2016~2019, and the model with better fitting is determined by combining AIC criterion. Finally, using SAS software, we choose ARIMA(1,2,1) model to effectively predict the total output of tea in Fujian Province from 2020 to 2025.