窟野河流域河川基流变化及其驱动因素分析

Analysis on the Change of Base Flow and Its Driving Factors in Kuye River Basin

摘要: 基于窟野河流域温家川水文站1956~2012年的日径流资料以及气候等数据，通过比较递归数字滤波法(RF法)、数字滤波法、平滑最小值法与HYSEP法四类共九种方法分割的基流过程、基流指数统计特征与分割效果误差，确定出适合的分割方法；采用差积曲线法与滑动t检验法确定并检验基流突变年份；采用双累积曲线法分别计算气候因素与人类活动的贡献率。结果表明：选用F1法进行基流分割更为可靠。基流不仅呈现出持续减少的趋势，且突变年份1980年和1996年与气候突变点不一致，以突变年为界将时间序列分为三个阶段。与基准期相比，第二、三阶段气候和人类活动的贡献率分别为7.72%、92.28%和15.73%、84.27%。进入21世纪，人类活动始终是影响基流的主要因素，气候变化对基流的影响呈现出日益增长的趋势。

Abstract: Based on the daily runoff data and climate data of Wenjiachuan hydrology station in Kuye River basin from 1956 to 2012, the appropriate segmentation method was determined by comparing the numerical statistical characteristics and the base flow index errors of nine methods, which includes recursive digital filtering, smooth minimum and HYSEP methods. The difference product curve and slip t test were used to determine and verify the mutation year of base flow. The contribution rates of climate factors and human activities were calculated by double cumulative curve method. The results show that F1 method is reliable for analysis, and the base flow not only shows a trend of continuous reduction, but also the abrupt transition years of 1980 and 1996 were inconsistent with the abrupt transition points of climate. The time series was divided into three stages with the abrupt transition years as the boundary. Compared with the base period, the contribution rates of climate and human activities in the second and third stages are 7.72%, 92.28%, 15.73% and 84.27%, respectively. In the 21st century, human activities have always been the main factor affecting the base-flow, and the influence of climate change on base-flow shows an increasing trend.