SEIR修正模型下的武汉地区COVID-19疫情研究与分析

Study and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic in Wuhan Area Based on SEIR Revision Model

摘要: 以武汉地区COVID-19疫情为研究对象，修正传统SEIR传染病模型，建立符合新冠病毒传播特性的传染病模型。考虑到传染动力系统的模型参数非常数，将武汉地区疫情分为三个阶段。基于预处理后的数据，分阶段进行参数估计和模型求解。结合阈值分析，解释模型参数变化原因。经扰动分析，证实隔离对疫情规模发展的重要性。

Abstract: According to the features of COVID-19, the traditional SEIR infectious disease model was revised and COVID-19 model with the characteristic of transmission was established. Considering the fact that the parameters of the infectious power system are not constant, we divided the disease development of Wuhan area into three stages. Based on the processed data, parameter estimation and model solving were carried out in every step. Combined with the threshold analysis, the changes in model parameters were well explained. With disturbance analysis, the importance of isolation to the scale of this pandemic was confirmed.