集群无人机任务可靠性的贝叶斯网络建模

Bayesian Network Modeling of Mission Reliability for Clustered UAVs

摘要: 无人机作为现代装备体系的重要组成部分，具有造价低，目标灵巧，风险低的特点。近年来，集群无人机的出现进一步展现了无人机在未来战争中的成本和数量优势。但是，相比于有人机，无人机技术尚未完全成熟、任务环境更加恶劣、无人机之间的联系复杂多样等因素，使得集群无人机的任务可靠性备受关注。同时，贝叶斯网络在对复杂系统进行研究时，相比于故障树等传统的可靠性分析方法更具优势，本文提出基于贝叶斯网络的集群无人机任务可靠性建模方法。本文从单无人机、无人机子群、无人机集群三个层次，提出了集群无人机任务可靠性的计算逻辑，根据贝叶斯网络建模过程，建立了集群无人机的贝叶斯网络，本文的工作为后续的集群无人机任务可靠性研究提供了借鉴意义。

Abstract: As an important part of modern equipment system, UAV has the characteristics of low cost, dexterous target and low risk. In recent years, the emergence of clustered UAVs has further demonstrated the cost and quantity advantages of UAVs in future wars. However, compared with man-machine, the reliability of cluster UAV has attracted much attention due to the incomplete maturity of UAV technology, more hostile mission environment, complex and diverse relationships among UAV. At the same time, compared with traditional reliability analysis methods such as fault tree, Bayesian network has more advantages in the study of complex systems. In this paper, a reliability modeling method of cluster UAV based on Bayesian network is proposed. This paper proposes the computing logic of the reliability of cluster UAV from three levels of single UAV, UAV subgroup and UAV cluster. According to the modeling process of Bayesian network, the Bayesian network of cluster UAV is es-tablished. The work of this paper provides reference for the subsequent research on the reliability of cluster UAV.