阿勒泰地区年一日最大降水量时空分布及其重现期估算

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Maximum Daily Precipitation and Recurrence Periods in Altay Area

摘要: 利用新疆省阿勒泰地区7个气象站50a (1961~2018年)逐日降水资料，分析了阿勒泰地区近58年来一日最大降水量的时空分布规律，应用耿贝尔I型极值分布模型，对地区各气象站的年一日最大降水量的重现期进行了估算，分析了不同重现期内各地可能出现的极端最大日降水量值。结果表明：近58年来，阿勒泰地区最大日降雨量级呈递增趋势，空间分布不均，由东南向西部逐渐递减；在推算不同重现期的年极端日降水量时，用耿贝尔法效果较好。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data for 7 meteorological stations over Xinjing Province in Altay area from 1961 to 2018, the spatial and temporal distributions of daily maximum precipitation and its recurrence periods, and extreme daily maximum precipitations with different return periods are analyzed by using Gumbel distribution function. The results show that maximum daily entered the increasing trend, the spatial distribution of daily maximum precipitation was uneven in Altay area and increased from northwest to southeast. Estimates under different recurrence periods show that the Gunnberg method works better.