基于贝叶斯网络的无人机任务可靠性建模方法

The Reliability Modeling Method of UAV Mis-sion Based on Bayesian Network

摘要: 无人机因为它本身所具有的灵巧性，使其进行活动时不容易被发现，往往能得到出其不意的效果，即使被发现并摧毁，带来的损失也比损失有人机要小得多，在未来战争中势必会有无人机的一席之地。同时，无人机的任务可靠性关系着任务的成败，为了探索无人机任务可靠性的建模方法，本文基于贝叶斯网络进行了研究，首先根据无人机各分系统的拓扑结构，建立了任务可靠性框图，并依据任务可靠性框图转化为贝叶斯网络，最后通过算例验证模型的可行性。本文的研究为后续关于无人机任务可靠性研究提供支撑。

Abstract: Due to its inherent dexterity, UAV is not easy to be detected when carrying out activities, and it can often achieve unexpected effects. Even if it is detected and destroyed, the loss will be much less than the loss of human aircraft. Therefore, there is bound to be a place for UAV in future wars. At the same time, the UAV mission reliability is related to the success of the task. In order to explore the reliability of the UAV mission modeling method, this article is based on Bayesian network is studied. First of all, according to the topology of the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) each subsystem mission reliability block diagram is established, and on the basis of mission reliability diagram coverted into Bayesian networks. Finally, the feasibility of model is validated by an example. The research in this paper provides support for the follow-up research on the reliability of UAV mission.