我国西南地区降水季节变化特征分析
Analysis on Seasonal Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Southwest China
摘要: 本文基于线性倾向法、Mann-Kendall检验方法、Morlet小波分析方法，对西南地区的降水季节变化特征进行了研究。结果表明西南地区1971~2010年间年降水量呈下降趋势，四季中只有冬季降水呈上升趋势，秋季下降趋势达到了0.01的显著性水平。西南地区季节降水空间分布差异显著：整体而言，春季降水从西到东呈增加趋势，夏季、秋季和冬季从南向北呈下降趋势。西南地区四季降水均存在明显突变，整体而言偏旱年份较偏涝年份多；从降水的周期来看，四季降水均存在不同周期。
Abstract:
Based on the linear tendency method, Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet analysis method, the seasonal variation characteristics of precipitation were analyzed in Southwest China from 1971 to 2010. The results show that annual precipitation shows a downward trend, while only winter autumn precipitation shows an upward trend in all seasons and autumn precipitation reaches the significance level of 1%. The difference of spatial distribution of precipitation is significant. In a whole, spring precipitation shows an increasing trend from west to east, and there is a decreasing trend of precipitation from south to north in summer, autumn and winter. Abrupt changes of seasonal precipitation occur and the drought year occurs more frequently than flood year overall. In term of precipitation cycles, there exist different periods in precipitation of four seasons.
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