人民币在“一带一路”区域中的货币锚效应增强了吗？

Has the Currency Anchor Effect in the Belt and Road Region Increased?

摘要: 从全球视角看，当前“一超多元”国际货币体系下，发达国家对国际货币占据垄断地位，发达国家和发展中国家利益失衡。人民币成为国际化货币，可以给当前货币体系带来新的制衡力量，使国际货币体系更加完善。为此，本文从理论和现实基础两方面对人民币在“一带一路”区域发挥货币锚作用的可能性进行分析，结论发现：1) 整体上，人民币在“一带一路”区域已产生货币锚效应，且影响力已超日元和英镑；2) 东南亚、南亚和中东欧显著参考人民币，而中亚、西亚北非和独联体区域人民币货币锚效应不显著；3) 2005年汇改至2014年，人民币在“一带一路”区域的货币锚效应逐渐增强，2014年以后有所减弱；4) 贸易渠道是人民币货币锚效应的主要作用渠道，跨境直接投资渠道对人民币货币锚效应作用不明显。

Abstract: From a global perspective, under the current “One-Diverse” international currency system, de-veloped countries have a monopoly on international currencies. The interests of developed and developing countries are unbalanced. If the RMB becomes an international currency, it can bring new power and balance to the current monetary system and make the international monetary system more balanced and reasonable. For this purpose, this article analyzes the possibility of the RMB’s currency anchor effect in the Belt and Road region from the theoretical and practical basis, and it uses data relating to 25 countries from 2005 to 2014 to analyze whether the RMB has a currency anchor effect at the regional anchor level. The main conclusions of this article are: 1) On the whole, the RMB has had a currency anchor effect in the Belt and Road region, and the RMB’s influence has surpassed the yen and the GBP; 2) RMB is a significant reference in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe, while the RMB currency anchor effect in Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa, and the CIS region is not significant; 3) Generally speaking, after the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB currency anchor effect gradually strengthened and weakened after 2014; 4) The trade channel is the main channel for the RMB currency anchor effect and cross-border direct investment channel has no obvious effect on the RMB currency anchor effect.