黔东南州近60年气温时空变化特征分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Temperature in Qiandongnan Prefecture in the Past 60 Years

摘要: 利用1960~2019年黔东南全州16个县市台站气温资料，使用气候变化分析方法如M-K突变检验、小波分析等，分析了黔东南州近60年来的气温时空变化特征。结果表明：黔东南州各县市年平均气温在14.7℃~18.5℃之间，全州年平均气温从1960年至今整体缓慢上升，M-K突变检验表明黔东南州气温突变点为2006年，且2009年以后气温的上升趋势十分显著。黔东南州年平均气温存在着准4年周期，在60年代有显著的3年左右的年际振荡周期，在1986~2010年有显著的4年振荡周期。黔东南州最冷月(1月)各县市月平均气温均在0℃以上，全州年平均最低气温 ≤ 0℃的日数在州西部为24~28 d，州南部仅为4 d左右；黔东南州最热月(7月)各县市月平均气温呈东部向西部递减的趋势，州西部较东部凉爽，北部较南部凉爽，全州年平均最高气温 ≥ 35℃日数南部年平均出现20 d以上，西部为0 d。

Abstract: With the temperature data of 16 stations of Qiandongnan from 1960 to 2019, using climate change analysis methods such as M-K test and wavelet analysis, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in temperature in Qiandongnan Prefecture in the past 60 years were analyzed. Results show that: The annual average temperature of Qiandongnan Prefecture is between 14.7˚C - 18.5˚C. The average annual temperature of the whole prefecture has been increasing slowly from 1960 to the present. The MK mutation test shows that the temperature mutation point of Qiandongnan Prefecture is 2006 and after 2009, the rising trend of temperature is very significant. The annual average temperature in Qiandongnan Prefecture has a quasi 4-year cycle. In the 1960s, there was a significant interannual oscillation cycle of about 3 years, and a significant 4-year oscillation cycle from 1986 to 2010. The coldest month (January) in Qiandongnan Prefecture, the monthly average temperature of all counties and cities is above 0˚C, and the number of days with the annual average minimum temperature ≤ 0˚C in the whole prefecture is 24 - 28 days in the western part of the state, and only about 4 days in the southern part; the hottest month in the state (July), the monthly average temperature of the counties and cities is decreasing from east to west. The western part of the state is cooler than the east, and the north is cooler than the south. In the southern of state, the number of days that the average annual maximum temperature of the whole state exceeds 35℃ is more than 20 days, while the west is 0 day.