近55年来喀什市升温过程频数及强度气候特征

Climatic Characteristics of Frequency and Intensity of Warming Process in Kashgar in Recent 55 Years

摘要: 本文选取喀什市1961~2015逐日平均气温资料，利用数理统计法对喀什市近55年的升温频数及强度气候特征进行分析。结果表明：1961~2015年喀什市的升温过程共有4746次，平均每年出现86.3次，I级(弱)、II级(中等)、IV级(强)、V级(极强)升温过程分别占89.6%、6.57%、2.13%、1.7%；喀什市一年四季均可能出现升温天气，其中以冬季升温天气过程次数最多，是全部升温次数的27.5%，其次是秋季，占25.4%，春季和夏季升温天气过程次数最少，分别占23.9%和23.2%；近55年喀什市升温过程的持续日数分布在1~16 d之间，平均每次升温过程持续2.07 d，且随着持续日数的增加，喀什市的升温过程频数呈现逐渐下降的趋势；1961~2015年喀什市共4746次过程升温过程中24 h、48 h、72 h升温幅度的平均值分别为2.34℃、1.97℃、1.47℃；1961~2015年喀什市升温过程的最高气温平均值为19.52℃，在春、夏、秋、冬四季，平均气温分别为23.7℃、32.4℃、20.3℃、4.13℃。

Abstract: In this paper, the daily average temperature data of Kashgar city from 1961 to 2015 were selected, and the warming frequency and intensity climate characteristics of Kashgar city in recent 55 years were analyzed by mathematical statistics. The results show that the city from 1961 to 2015 in the heating process of a total of 4746 times, 86.3 times per year on average, levels I (weak), II (medium), IV (strong), V (strong) heating process accounted for 89.6%, 6.57%, 2.13% and 1.7% respectively; warming weather is likely to occur in all seasons of the year in Kashgar city. Among them, the warming weather process in winter is the most frequent (27.5%), followed by autumn (25.4%), and the warming weather process in spring and summer is the least frequent (23.9% and 23.2%). In recent 55 years, the duration of the warming process in Kashgar ranged from 1 to 16 days, with an average duration of 2.07 days per warming process. As the duration of the warming process increased, the frequency of the warming process in Kashgar gradually declined. From 1961 to 2015, the average temperature rise of 24 h, 48 h and 72 h in a total of 4746 processes in Kashgar was 2.34˚C, 1.97˚C and 1.47˚C, respectively. From 1961 to 2015, the average maximum temperature in the warming process of Kashgar city was 19.52˚C. In spring, summer, autumn and winter, the average temperature was 23.7˚C, 32.4˚C, 20.3˚C and 4.13˚C, respectively.