人口–经济空间结构的时空演化及其影响因素——基于空间杜宾模型的山东省地级市与县域数据分析

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Population Economy Spatial Structure and Its Influencing Factors—Data Analysis of Prefecture Level Cities and Counties in Shandong Province Based on Spatial Durbin Model

摘要: 基于2008~2019年山东省16地级市、2014年与2018年山东省88个县域人口、经济等数据，从不同尺度分析山东省整体的人口规模变化、人口–经济的空间结构指数变化，并根据山东省多中心格局稳定，同时伴有青岛、济南双中心更突出、其它地级市状态没有较大变化的统计结果，进一步分析县域尺度下，人口、经济等因素对人口–经济空间结构指数的空间计量关系。结果显示：产业结构水平、金融发展规模对空间结构指数有显著直接正效应；而社会保障水平则有显著负效应；经济发展水平、产业结构水平对邻近县域的空间结构指数产生显著负的空间溢出效应；政府行政管理效率、社会保障水平对邻近县域的空间结构指数有显著正的空间溢出效应。

Abstract: Based on demographic and economic data of 16 prefecture level cities from 2008 to 2019 and 88 counties from 2014 to 2018 in Shandong Province, this paper calculates the demographic-economic spatial structure index under different scales. In addition, there are three main statistical results: the first one is that multi-center pattern of Shandong Province is stable; the second one is that the extent of the double centers of Qingdao and Jinan is more prominent; and the last one is that there is no significant change in the status of other prefecture level cities. Furthermore, the spatial rela-tionship among the demographic-economic spatial structure index and the effect of the demo-graphic and economic on it are further studied. The results show that: the level of industrial structure and the scale of financial development have a significant direct positive effect on the spatial structure index, while the level of social security has a significant negative effect; the level of economic development and industrial structure have a significant negative spatial spillover effect on the spatial structure index of neighboring counties; the efficiency of government administration and the level of social security have significantly positive spatial spillover effect on the spatial structure index of neighboring counties.