基于改进SIR模型的口碑对企业决策的作用研究

Research on the Effect of Word-of-Mouth on Enterprise Decision-Making Based on Improved SIR Model

摘要: 由于网络经济时代的来临，无论是消费者的购买决策，还是企业的战略决策都深受网络口碑的影响。文章在经典SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)模型的基础上，通过研究策略型消费者的多周期消费行为，企业利用口碑传播来制定广告决策与定价决策，从而能够最优化企业的收益。研究发现，企业实施广告决策时，感知阈值模型中，某个特定消费者在网络中的朋友购买比例的增加值取决于广告努力水平与消费者的度数。另外，企业实施定价决策时，企业的均衡策略是采取递减的价格路径，而消费者的最优反应则是根据自己的感知阈值进行权衡购买。同时，企业的递减的价格路径提高了消费者的停播阈值，使得消费者更乐意进行口碑传播，从而提高了企业的收益。

Abstract: With the advent of the era of network economy, both consumers’ purchase decisions and enterprises’ strategic decisions are deeply influenced by network word-of-mouth. Based on the classical SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model, this paper studies the multi-cycle consumption behavior of strategic consumers, and enterprises use word-of-mouth communication to make advertising decisions and pricing decisions, so as to optimize the profits of enterprises. It is found that in the perceptual threshold model, the added value of a particular consumer’s friend purchase proportion in the network depends on the advertising proportion and the degree of consumers. In addition, when enterprises implement pricing strategies, the equilibrium strategy of enterprises is to adopt a decreasing price path, while the optimal response of consumers is to trade-off purchase according to their perception threshold. At the same time, the decreasing price path of enterprises increases the stop-broadcasting threshold of consumers, which makes consumers more willing to carry out word-of-mouth communication, thereby improving the profits of enterprises.