基于Budyko水热平衡理论的窟野河径流变化归因识别

Attribution Identification of Runoff Variation in Kuye River Based on Budyko’s Theory of Water and Heat Balance

摘要: 黄河流域水沙变化剧烈，为更好地利用和开发水资源，定量的分析出引起河川径流变化的原因。采用Mann-Kendall、Pettitt突变点检验和累积距平曲线法，对1971~2016年窟野河流域内气象数据进行处理，基于budyko水热平衡理论对窟野河径流变化归因识别，得出气象因素和认为活动因素对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：降雨和潜在蒸发均为非显著性增加，径流显著性下降，人为因素的下垫面变化对径流减少的贡献率达到98%是最主要的影响因素。人为活动中，通过土地利用类型图的变化，看出大量的煤矿开采，退耕还林还草，以及城乡居民用水导致了径流的急剧减少。

Abstract: Quantitative analysis of the causes of runoff changes in the basin can make us better use of water and soil resources. The Mann Kendall, Pettitt mutation point test and cumulative anomaly curve methods were used to process the meteorological data in the Kuye River basin from 1971 to 2016. Based on Budyko wa-ter and heat balance theory, the attribution of runoff change in Kuye River was identified, and the contribution rate of meteorological factors and active factors to runoff change was obtained. The results show that: rainfall and potential evaporation are not significantly increased, runoff is significantly decreased, and the contribution rate of human factors to runoff reduction is 98%. In human activities, through the change of land use type map, it can be seen that a large number of coal mining, returning farmland to forest and grassland, and urban and rural residents’ water use led to a sharp decrease in runoff.