老龄化背景下城镇居民基本养老保险基金支出问题研究

Research on Expenditure of Basic Old-Age Insurance Fund for Urban Residents under the Background of Aging

摘要: 本文根据我国2000年~2019年间人口出生率、离退休人员参加基本养老保险人数等数据，通过回归分析等方法研究老龄化背景下我国城镇居民基本养老保险支出影响因素分析。分析结果显示，我国城镇居民基本养老保险基金支出和65岁及以上人口数均呈现逐年上升趋势，并且与我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金收入、人口自然增长率、老年抚养比以及在职职工参加养老保险人数存在相关性。但近几年我国人口出生率下降趋势明显，人口死亡率仍然维持在7%左右的水平，使得人口老龄化的问题越来越明显。

Abstract: Based on the data of the birth rate and the number of retirees participating in basic endowment insurance from 2000 to 2019, this paper studies the influencing factors of basic endowment insurance expenditure of urban residents in China based on the method of regression analysis. The results show that the expenditure of basic endowment insurance fund for urban residents and the number of people aged 65 and above are on the rise year by year, and there is a correlation between the basic endowment insurance fund income, natural population growth rate, elderly dependency ratio and the number of employees participating in endowment insurance. However, in recent years, China’s birth rate has declined significantly, and the mortality rate is still maintained at about 7%, which makes the problem of population aging more and more obvious.