气候变化对中国北方作物需水量影响分析

An Analysis of the Influence of Climate Change on Crop Water Requirement in Northern Regions of China

摘要: 全球气候变化及其可能造成的影响已成为世界各国普遍关注与重视的热点问题。我国北方地区水资源紧张，澄清气候变化对作物需水影响十分重要。但目前对气候变化影响作物需水情况的结论不甚一致，甚至互相矛盾，因此，本文对有关研究资料进行了搜集和分析，以期明确气候变化对北方作物需水的影响特征。分析的主要结论：1) 北方不同地区不同作物的需水量对气候变化响应不同，在华北地区，主要作物的需水量变化不确定或继续呈下降趋势，西北主要呈上升趋势，东北则上升和下降情况均有；2) 华北作物需水量减少的气象原因主要是日照时数减少和风速下降影响；3) 随着温室效应加剧，气温变化对作物需水量的影响也存在不确定性，可能增大也可能减少；4) 气候变化对水资源和水分利用的影响是多方面的，应该全面考虑作物的需水和农业生产技术的进步等因素进行分析，避免采用单一要素，得到的研究结果才会客观。

Abstract: Global warming and its impacts have always been at the centre of world concern. The water resources are short in the northern regions of China, so clarifying the influence of climate change on crop water requirement is necessary. But there were disputes over the influence and some were opposite. In order to clarify the issue, related publications were collected and analyzed. The following conclusion was made: 1) In the north part of China, the influence of climate change on crop water requirement varied with regions and crops. In North China, main crop water requirements were uncertain or likely kept the reduced trend, but in Northeast China the trend tended to increase; in Northwest China, some crops or some areas showed reduced trend while some other areas or crops showed increased; 2) The main causes for the reduction in crop water requirement caused by climate change were due to the reduction in wind speed and sunshine hours; 3) With the increase of “greenhouse effect”, the crop water requirement influenced by rising temperature was uncertain, which might be greater or be less; 4) The influences of climate change on crop water requirement were multiple. When judging the situation of the water resources of a region impacted by climate change, it would be appropriate to consider both the crop water consumption and technological progress and try to avoid using single climate factor.