“一带一路”倡议下西部陆上能源通道安全风险评估研究

The Western Land Energy Channels Security Risk Assessment Research under “The Belt and Road” Initiative

摘要: 能源安全是国家总体安全观的重要组成部分。基于战略考虑，中国在加强海上能源通道安全保障的同时，也着力规划和构建陆上能源通道，西部地区则是国家的重点布局方向。本文在风险计量表达式的基础上，从微观和宏观视角选取安全风险指标，基于AHP-PCA加权模型进行系统评估。结果表明中哈原油管道安全风险概率最低，中巴伊管道安全风险概率最高。再将能源设计输送量记为损失，得到中国–中亚天然气管道A/B/C段安全风险最大，中哈原油管道安全风险最小。建议完善国家能源数据库建设，加强对沿线国家风险概率系统评估，计算国家可承受风险，以此规划各线路的设计输送量。

Abstract: Energy security is an important component of the overall national security concept. Based on strategic considerations, while strengthening the security of maritime energy channel, China has also made great efforts to plan and build onshore energy channel. The western region is a major national priority. On the basis of risk measurement expressions, this paper selects safety risk indexes from micro and macro perspectives and conducts systematic evaluation based on AHP-PCA weighted model. The results show that the safety risk probability of China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline is the lowest while that of China-Pakistan Iran pipeline is the highest. Taking the energy design throughput as loss, it can be concluded that section A/B/C of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline has the highest safety risk, while the China-Pakistan-Iran crude oil pipeline has the lowest safety risk. The author suggests to improve the national energy database construction, strengthen the systematic assessment of the risk probability of countries along the route, and calculate the risk that the country can bear, so as to plan the design throughput of each route.