基于改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对某岛海平面上升高度的预测

Prediction of Sea Level Rise of an Island Based on Improved Metabolic GM(1,1) Model

摘要: 以温室气体排放为主要原因的全球气候变暖直接导致了地球两级冰川融化，海平面正在以惊人的速度上升，越来越多海岛上的人们流离失所，成为气候难民。为预测某岛附近海平面变化情况，本文提出了改进的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型，该模型在背景值上利用平方平均数进行预测。通过MATLAB软件，运用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型与改进后新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型分别对某岛海平面变化情况进行预测及仿真分析，得到改进后的模型相对误差较小，优于传统模型。预测得到某岛海平面将保持持续上升趋势，到2060年，海平面高度将比1992年上升661.44 cm。

Abstract: Global warming, which is mainly caused by greenhouse gas emissions, has directly led to the melting of two-level glaciers on the earth. Sea level is rising at an alarming rate. More and more people on islands are displaced and become climate refugees. In order to predict the sea level change near an island, an improved metabolic GM(1,1) model is proposed in this paper. The model uses the square average to predict the background value. By using MATLAB software, the metabolic GM(1,1) model and the improved metabolism GM(1,1) model are used to predict and simulate the sea level change of an island. The results show that the relative error of the improved model is smaller than that of the traditional model. It is predicted that the sea level of an island will maintain a rising trend, and the sea level will rise by 661.44cm compared with that in 1992 until 2060.