气候变暖背景下寿光“数九”时节气温变化特征及突变分析

Analysis of the Characteristics and Mutation of Temperature Change during the Period of “Shu Jiu” in Shouguang under Climate Warming

摘要: 为了解寿光市“数九”时节温度变化规律，基于寿光市1961~2018年“数九”时节逐日气温观测资料，利用现代气候诊断方法，分析了寿光“数九”时节气温变化特征。结果表明，1) 寿光近58年“数九”平均气温、最低气温总体呈均上升趋势。冬季变暖极端最低气温比平均气温贡献率大，“五九”、“七九”贡献相对大，“四九”贡献最小。2) ≤−10.0℃日数“五九”最多达2.3天/年。寒冷时段出现在“三九”至“五九”，“五九”中期最冷，且“五九”期间温度起伏波动大。“六九”开始升温，“七九”平均气温升至0℃以上。3) 寿光“数九”平均气温年代际变暖趋势明显，年代最低值出现在60年代，最高值出现在21世纪初10年。“五九”年代升温最快，“四九”年代升温最慢，两者相差达0.514℃/10a。4) “数九”平均气温1988年发生突变，突变前后相差2.2℃。

Abstract: The paper aims to reveal the variation regularity of “shu jiu” in Shouguang, based on the daily temperature observation data of Shouguang from 1961 to 2018, and using modern climate diagnosis method, the characteristics of temperature change in Shouguang were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) In recent 58 years, the average temperature and the lowest temperature of “shu jiu” in Shouguang have increased. The contribution rate of winter warming extreme minimum temperature is higher than the average temperature, the contribution rate of “wu jiu” and “qi jiu” is relatively large, and the contribution rate of “si jiu” is the smallest. 2) The maximum number of days at −10.0˚C is 2.3 days/year. The cold period is from “si jiu” to “wu jiu”, and the middle period of “wu jiu” is the coldest, and the temperature fluctuates greatly during “wu jiu”. “Liu jiu” began to heat up, and the average temperature of “qi jiu” “rose above 0˚C. 3) In Shouguang, the trend of decadal warming of the average temperature is obvious, with the lowest value in the 1960s and the highest value in the early 10 years of the 21st century. The “wu jiu” and the “si jiu” years are the fastest warming, with a difference of 0.514˚C/10a. 4) The average temperature of shu jiu changed abruptly in 1988, with a difference of 2.2˚C.