花椒产量构成因素的通经分析

Path Analysis on the Constitute Factors of the Yield of Prickly Ash

摘要: 目的：确定花椒树冠结构因子与产量的关联性，为整形修剪和丰产管理提供基础。方法：采用相关分析和通径分析方法，分析X₁树龄、X₂干径、X₃冠幅、X₄树高、X₅株营养面积、X₆株标准枝数、株产量X₇、栽植密度X₈和单位面积产量X₉调查值，利用直接和间接相关系数、R2和相关概率Zi值，评价X_i与X₇和X₉的关联性及其重要性。结果：结果表明，X₁ (或X₂)、X₃、X₄、X₆与X₇明显相关，各因素与X₇的ZX₆之间存在，27.36% > ZX₃，25.23% > ZX₂，17.63%和ZX₁，17.33% > ZX₄，13.98% > ZX₅，−1.52%，但X₁和X₂同时存在时有相互抵触作用，据此建立了评估X₇的简易模型Mp-1和Mp-2、及高精度模型Mp-3和Mp-4；结果还表明，X₉对X₁ (或X₂)、X₃、X₄、X₆和X₇的依赖作用明显，各因素与X₉的ZX₇之间存在，28.53% > ZX₆，23.89% > ZX₁，21.60%、ZX₂，20.32%和ZX₃，21.48% > ZX₄，17.25% > ZX₈，7.66% > ZX₅，−7.99%，但X₈是支撑X₉的基础，据此建立了X₉的估测模型，以X₇值为基础的模型为MG2-1，快速调查估测模型为MG3-1和MG3-2，高精度模型是MG2-3和MG2-4。结论：花椒树冠因子X₃和X₆是影响株产量的关键因素，X₃和X₆值的大小又与X₁ (或X₂)、X₃和X₄有关；树冠结构因子X₁ (或X₂)、X₃、X₄和椒园环境因子X₈是影响花椒单位面积产量的关键因子。

Abstract: Aim: Determine the correlation between the crown structure factors of prickly ash and the yield to provide the basis for plastic pruning and high yield management. Methods: The tree age (X₁), stem diameter (X₂), crown width (X₃), tree height (X₄), plant nutrient area (X₅), plant standard branch number (X₆), plant yield (X₇), planting density (X₈) and survey value of yield per unit area (X₉) were measured by adopting correlation and path analysis methods. Direct and indirect correlation coefficients, R2 and correlation probability Zi values were used to evaluate the relevance and importance of X_i, X₇ and X₉. Results: X₁ (or X₂), X₃, X₄ and X₆ were apparently related to X₇, and their correlation probability values can be ranked as follows: ZX₆, 27.36% > ZX₃, 25.23% > ZX₂, 17.63% and ZX₁, 17.33% > ZX₄, 13.98% > ZX₅, −1.52%, while there was a conflicting effect existing between X₁ and X₂. Based on the results, simple models Mp-1 and Mp-2 and high-precision models Mp-3 and Mp-4 used for evaluating X₇ were established. Moreover, it also indicated that X₉ showed striking dependency on X₁ (or X₂), X₃, X₄ X₆ and X₇, and the order of their correlation probability values was ZX₇, 28.53% > ZX₆, 23.89% > ZX₁, 21.60%, ZX₂, 20.32% and ZX₃, 21.48% > ZX₄, 17.25% > ZX₈, 7.66% > ZX₅, −7.99%, while X₈ was the foundation to support X₉. According to these results, the estimation model of X₉ was constructed, and the model built based on the X₇ value was MG2-1. The rapid survey estimation models were MG3-1 and MG3-2, and the high-precision models were MG2-3 and MG2-4. Conclusion: Prickly ash tree crown factors X₃ and X₆ are the key factors affecting plant yield, and the values of X₃ and X₆ are closely related to the structural factors X₁ (or X₂), X₃ and X₄. Furthermore, these structural factors and the garden environmental factor X₈ are the crucial elements impacting the yield of per unit area of prickly ash.